China will limit the yuan’s appreciation to 4 percent over the next 12 months because of a “super cautious” outlook on the global economy, said New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini.

The central bank may end a 20-month peg to the dollar as soon as the second quarter, allowing a 2 percent one- step gain, and then let the currency strengthen another 1 percent to 2 percent in 12 months, Roubini said in an interview in New York. The yuan rose 21 percent between July 2005 and July 2008, when the government halted its advance to protect exports during the global recession.

Roubini’s forecast is less aggressive than the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 20 analysts for the yuan to rise 5 percent to 6.50 per dollar by March 31, 2011. Chinese central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on March 6 that the nation should be “very cautious” in exiting policies adopted during the global financial crisis, including the exchange-rate stance.

“It will be less than what they did in 2005 when everything was going right,” Roubini, 51, who anticipated the global financial crisis, said in the March 4 interview. “They will move by a token amount. The world is much cloudier in every dimension. They are super cautious.”

‘Hard Landing’

Roubini, who chairs New York-based Roubini Global Economics LLC, has become famous for his pessimistic projections. In 2007, he correctly predicted a “hard landing” for the world economy. He said last year that the global economy would shrink through 2009, only for growth to resume in the middle of the year.

Jim O’Neill, the chief Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist who coined the term BRICs for Brazil, Russia, India and China in 2001, said last month that “something is brewing” on the yuan and predicted policy makers will allow a one-time 5 percent gain. Twelve-month non- deliverable forwards traded at 6.6505 per dollar, indicating bets the yuan will rise 2.6 percent from the spot rate of 6.8265.

“We must be very cautious about the timing of normalizing the policies, and this includes the renminbi rate policy,” Zhou said at a press briefing in Beijing, using another term for the Chinese currency. A global recovery “isn’t solid,” he said.

‘Sooner or Later’

China will exit its crisis policies “sooner or later” as it balances growth and inflation concerns, Zhou said. Regulators ordered banks to set aside more cash as reserves and to curb lending after the economy grew 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter, the most in two years.

Consumer prices probably climbed 2.5 percent in February from a year earlier, the biggest increase since October 2008, compared with 1.5 percent in January, according to the median estimate from 29 economists. A stronger currency would reduce import prices and may reduce the need to sell yuan for dollars to maintain the peg.

“A bit of move in the currency might help,” Roubini said. “If they move it by 2-3 percent, it won’t make a huge difference to inflation pressure. They are always cautious and won’t bow to the pressure from the U.S.”

While President Barack Obama has urged China to let the yuan climb to aid U.S. manufacturers, Chinese exporters say a gain of more than 2 percent may wipe out profits.

Export Recovery

China’s overseas shipments rose 21 percent in January from a year earlier, the fastest pace in 16 months. Fifteen U.S. senators called for stiffer tariffs on China’s imports last week, accusing the country of artificially keeping the yuan cheap. A stronger yuan would increase the purchasing power of Chinese residents and reduce the country’s reliance on exports.

“Most people are concerned about inflation, I am worried about the export-led growth model,” said Roubini. “A weak currency and low interest rate is a massive transfer of wealth from household income to enterprises. It will take more than three, five years to change China’s model of growth.”

Options traders are increasing their bets on the currency. Three-month implied volatility, a measure of expectations for yuan price movements, showed traders expected swings of 3.27 percent on March 4, a one-year high, up from 1.07 percent on Jan. 1. The next day the measure slumped to 2.8 percent as Premier Wen Jiabao said China plans to keep the currency “basically stable.”

“The Chinese authorities will be in no rush to further strengthen their currency,” said Joe Craven, the Asia-Pacific head of currencies and fixed-income at UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking in Hong Kong. “I view options volatility as being currently too high, especially in the shorter-end of the curve.”

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Solve your money worries and apply for a faxless payday loan today!

Crammed into a small Detroit office filled with pipe fittings, hydraulic tubing, and a device that looks like a gas pump combined with a supercomputer, Dave Shaw sums up how his life has changed.

Tipping back in a cheap office chair, the former auto executive points beneath the folding table that is his desk. "We had a ton of people working for us," Shaw says, crossing his stocky arms over his chest. "Now you have to do it all yourself. See that trash can? If I want it emptied, I empty it myself."

Two of Shaw’s colleagues at Clean Emission Fluids grin knowingly. All three once worked for auto companies or their suppliers. Today, as Shaw says, they are wearing many more hats than they ever did working for the Big Three: They are engineering, assembling, and marketing a highly sophisticated biodiesel blending machine that they hope will propel their three-year-old startup to huge success.

The machine makes any biofuel easily available in whatever mixture of traditional diesel and alternative fuel a trucker or fleet might choose. The result is cleaner-burning engines. "We aren’t waiting for the auto industry to come save us," says Clean Emission CEO Oliver Baer, a ThyssenKrupp alumnus. "We’re going to save ourselves."

Clean Emission is one of 160 startups that are part of a nonprofit incubator in central Detroit called TechTown. Founded by Wayne State University in 2000, the research park set out to make technology and entrepreneurship an engine of economic growth in a city that depended too much on, well, engines. With the U.S. auto industry in a shambles, TechTown’s mission seems more critical than ever.

Detroit isn’t known today for its entrepreneurism — or its tech prowess. But TechTown’s neighborhood is surrounded by reminders of Detroit’s innovative, ambitious past: There are ornate buildings, many of them vacant, that formerly housed the headquarters of GM, its Cadillac division, and its suppliers. According to local lore, the third floor of TechTown was where GM engineers conceived and designed the iconic Chevy Corvette.

These days TechTown is bustling. Over the summer nearly 1,000 people registered to attend a series of classes aimed at educating would-be entrepreneurs Business Card Holders. Almost a quarter came directly out of GM, Ford (F, Fortune 500), and Chrysler, and almost half were between the ages of 35 and 55. TechTown hopes to create jobs by helping give birth to 400 new companies in the next three years, says Randal Charlton, executive director of the incubator.

Will they all succeed? Clearly not, but don’t dismiss Detroit just because it isn’t Silicon Valley. The area is rich in skilled electrical, mechanical, and software engineers, and Detroiters have deep expertise in some industries with growth potential, such as alternative energy (hello, electric cars), health-care technology (until 2008, Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500) had one of its largest R&D centers in the region), and logistics and supply-chain management, thanks to its manufacturing roots.

Detroit’s would-be entrepreneurs also have something that many of their counterparts in California’s Mountain View and Sunnyvale lack: community spirit.

Don’t laugh. A lot of hotshot engineers and executives tend to be mercenary, readily relocating to the company — and region — that offers the best salary or the most stock options.

Not Greg Auner. "I was born and raised in Detroit," says Auner, a Wayne State professor and founding partner of Visca, a TechTown company that makes a handheld sensing device. Visca could be headquartered anywhere, but Auner is committed to staying in his hometown. "I am dedicated to this region and bringing about a rebirth here."

Civic pride also motivates Leah Robinson and Ashara Shepard, Ph.D. candidates and former schoolteachers who launched COOL School Technologies, a sort of educational Facebook. The women wanted to create a tool to help inspire and motivate students in Detroit, who don’t have the same auto industry job opportunities that their parents and grandparents had.

Then again, if Shepard and Robinson — and others in TechTown — are successful, Detroit’s next generation won’t miss those auto jobs; they’ll all be working for tech firms. 

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Struggling to pay your FHA mortgage? Now you no longer have to be late with your payments to get help.

On Friday, the Federal Housing Administration announced that it will assist borrowers before they become delinquent. All you need do is prove your problems were caused by a reduction of income from a job loss, fewer paid hours, slashed wages or a decline in self-employed business earnings.

You may also qualify because of a change in household circumstances, such as a death or disability.

"The FHA has always required lenders to establish early contact with delinquent borrowers to discuss the reason for missing a payment and to evaluate reinstatement options," FHA Commissioner David Stevens said in a prepared statement. "Now servicers will have additional options for those borrowers who seek help before they go delinquent, which increases the likelihood that the borrower will be able to retain their home no fax payday loan."

The workouts available include forbearance, in which lenders agree to postpone or reduce payments for a specified period. This does not actually forgive the payments, they are just added to balance later in the mortgage term.

In more severe cases, borrowers may qualify for permanent payment reductions. This may be done by increasing the length of the loan, reducing the interest rate or even forgiving principal — or a combination of any of the three. 

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Takuji Okubo, former senior director at Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co. in Tokyo, has joined Societe Generale SA as its chief Japan economist.

Okubo starts work today for the Paris-based bank in the newly created position, Glenn Maguire, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong, wrote in an e-mail to Bloomberg News.

Okubo was employed at Merrill Lynch from 2007 to 2009 after working for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Tokyo.

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GMAC Inc., the auto and home lender bailed out twice by the U.S. government, received a third rescue package valued at $3.79 billion that gives taxpayers a majority stake in the Detroit-based company.

The infusion will bolster lending at GMAC as it absorbs $3.8 billion in new pretax charges and decides what to do with its loss-plagued home mortgage unit, according to statements from the agency and the company yesterday. The aid comes on top of about $13.5 billion previously earmarked for GMAC, which regulators have said is crucial to the U.S. auto industry.

Chief Executive Officer Michael Carpenter is struggling to return the lender to profitability amid losses at the Residential Capital mortgage unit, known as ResCap, which GMAC may close or sell. GMAC is the primary lender to General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC, the automakers that went into bankruptcy during the recession.

“We needed the capital in this order of magnitude; we weren’t arguing for less,” Carpenter said in a phone interview. “As the business becomes proportionally more and more of an auto-finance business, one of the lowest-risk businesses there is, my hope is that the capital ratios we need will get relaxed over time.”

The rescue package calls for the Treasury to buy $2.54 billion of trust preferred securities that pay 8 percent, and $1.25 billion of mandatory convertible preferred stock, known as MCP, at 9 percent, according to the statements. The government also received warrants to buy more securities.

‘They Need GMAC’

“The Obama administration has decided to keep GM alive one way or the other and they need GMAC to do it,” said David Olson, president of mortgage research firm Wholesale Access in Columbia, Maryland. The firm counts GMAC as a client. “To bail out the car companies you need to bail out the finance companies.”

The Treasury’s current holding of non-convertible preferred stock will be swapped for $5.25 billion of the new MCP, and $3 billion of Treasury’s existing MCP will be converted into common, GMAC said.

The conversion of preferred into common “somewhat deleveraged” the company, Carpenter said. When coupled with improved conditions at the mortgage operations, it “will improve access to the capital markets in the near term” and lead to a quicker repayment of government funds, he said.

GMAC Stakeholders

The U.S. stake will rise to 56.3 percent from 35.4 percent. The U.S. also controls General Motors, GMAC’s former parent, whose stake shrinks to 6.7 percent. The stake held by Cerberus Capital Management LP, the New York-based investment firm, falls to 14.9 percent from 22 percent. An independent trust for the benefit of GM holds about 9.9 percent, GMAC said. GMAC doesn’t have publicly traded shares.

“In May, the Treasury Department made a commitment to all institutions that engaged in the stress tests that we would ensure their capital needs are met,” Treasury Department spokesman Andrew Williams said in an interview. “We are making good on that promise.”

GMAC was the only company of 19 that underwent stress tests that wasn’t able to raise capital in the private sector, Williams said. Still, the Treasury said the aid was less than originally planned because restructurings at GM and Chrysler caused less disruption at GMAC than regulators expected. Tim Price, a partner at Cerberus, didn’t return a call for comment.

ResCap’s Fate

GMAC affirmed that it’s looking at “strategic alternatives” for ResCap, ranked among the nation’s 10 biggest home lenders and once one of the largest marketers of subprime mortgages. The parent company wrote down $2 billion in ResCap mortgage assets in preparation for selling them and set up a $500 million reserve tied to the servicing unit that does billing and record-keeping for home loans.

“There will be individual asset sales in the near future but whether some larger concept evolves is a matter of time,” Carpenter said. “We think ResCap and the mortgage business is stable and that we don’t have to do anything crazy. We have no urgency.”

GMAC is being approached “every day with interesting ideas” for the unit, Carpenter said. The shoring up of ResCap allows the government to keep a stake in a company making home loans, said Mirko Mikelic, senior portfolio manager at Fifth Third Asset Management, which owns GMAC bonds.

GMAC contributed $2.7 billion of capital to ResCap in the form of mortgage loans acquired from the Ally Bank unit, debt forgiveness and cash, according to the company statement. GMAC “does not expect to incur additional substantial losses from ResCap,” the company said.

Mortgage Assets

At the Ally unit, GMAC bought “certain higher-risk mortgage assets” at fair value of $1.4 billion, which triggered an estimated $1.3 billion pretax charge. Those assets were contributed to ResCap. GMAC also gave $1.3 billion of cash to Ally to maintain its capital, the statement said.

The infusion is the final dose of capital needed to close a shortfall found by Federal Reserve stress tests in May. GMAC asked the Treasury Department to delay providing the cash when Carpenter was named CEO, replacing Alvaro de Molina on Nov. 16. The deadline for meeting the requirements had been Nov. 9.

GMAC got $12.5 billion in two previous government bailouts and another almost $1 billion that was funneled through GM, which used it to invest in GMAC. The U.S. will name two additional board members in conjunction with its increased stake, according to the statements.

The latest capital infusion and restructuring weren’t enough to stabilize ResCap and assure a return to profitability, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

While the changes were positive, ResCap “has been unprofitable on a quarterly basis for three years, its liquidity position is tenuous, capital insufficient and franchise impaired,” Moody’s said in a statement. GMAC didn’t guarantee continued support for ResCap, and without such help, “we believe ResCap would eventually default,” Moody’s said.

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Flash memory maker SanDisk Corp. has been of the hottest stocks on the market in December, up 52 percent in the past 19 trading sessions.

Milpitas-based SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) has gathered a number of positive analyst ratings during that time but there has been little else to explain investors' enthusiasm.

Its stock rose to a 52-week high of $30.14 in trading on Christmas Eve before closing at $30.13. It has more than quadrupled since hitting a 52-week low of $7.73 in March.

In its most recent quarterly earnings report, SanDisk posted a $231.3 million profit on a 14 percent rise in revenue to $935.2 million.

CEO Eli Harari said at the time, "We are encouraged by improved industry fundamentals and our increasingly diversified global markets, which bode well for further growth in the fourth quarter and in 2010 easy fast payday loans."

That followed word in September that South Korea-based Samsung Electronics Corp. had officially dropped a bid to buy SanDisk. Samsung's $5.85 billion offer was rejected last year as too low and later withdrawn.

The companies in May also signed a patent-license deal that reduces the threat of litigation between them in the flash-memory chip market.

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NEW YORK – General Motors Co. said Friday it will shut down Saab after talks to sell the brand to a Dutch carmaker collapsed, marking the third time this year that a deal by GM to sell an unwanted brand has fallen through.

GM said it had a small window of time to complete the deal and issues arose during the sale talks with Spyker Cars that could not be resolved. GM Vice President John Smith said representatives from GM, Spyker and the Swedish government were still in discussions Friday morning when talks fell apart. Smith declined to elaborate on the reasons.

"We've been trying to restart, if you will, an investment process without a great deal of time," Smith, who is in charge of GM's corporate planning and alliances, said during a conference call with reporters. "Like everybody, we would have preferred a different outcome, and we all worked very hard for that different outcome and we've come up short.''

Saab employs about 3,400 people worldwide, most of whom work at its main plant in Trollhatten, Sweden. It also has a parts distribution center and a design center in separate locations in Sweden and an engine plant in Finland.

The brand has 1,100 dealers, whom GM said will continue to honor warranties as the brand winds down.

"It's devastating. It was a very unique brand," said Ray Ciccolo, owner of two Saab dealerships in the Boston area, one of which has been in business since 1957.

The announcement marks the death of brand with a small yet loyal following. To enthusiasts, the Swedish company became appreciated for quirks like placing the ignition lock between the front seats rather than on the steering column. It was the first to offer heated seating in 1971.

GM bought a 50 percent stake and management control of Saab for $600 million after Saab split from Swedish truck maker Scania in 1989. It bought full ownership in 2000 for $125 million. But even after the GM takeover, Saab remained closely associated with Sweden and its history of making safe, reliable cars.

GM never made money on the acquisition and industry analysts complained that under GM, Saab lost its uniqueness in the crowded luxury segment.

GM first sought a buyer for Saab in January as part of its restructuring, which included plans to cut the number of its brands to four from eight. It was previously in talks to sell Saab to a consortium led by the Swedish sports car maker Koenigsegg Group AB, but it turned to Spyker after Koenigsegg withdrew from the talks in November.

GM's Smith said it is possible other buyers could emerge, adding that the brand still has vehicles in development "that might be attractive to some folks." But no such buyers have stepped forward and the liquidation of the brand will begin in early January.

"I can't rule it out, but I guess the clock starts now … on those kinds of expressions of interest," Smith said. He declined to say how much it might cost to wind down the brand.

On Monday, China's Beijing Automotive Industry Holdings – originally part of the Koenigsegg consortium – announced it had agreed to buy some powertrain technology from Saab personal loans for bad credit. It gave no details of costs or timing of that purchase.

On Friday, Beijing Autos said it wants to explore further cooperation with GM's Saab Automobile such as "new energy vehicles." However, Smith said the company has not shown any interest in buying the rest of the brand.

The Swedish government called the decision "surprising and regretful.''

"It's GM who took this decision, on their own grounds, and they have to answer to that by themselves," Enterprise Minister Maud Olofsson said at a news conference in Trollhattan.

Representatives of the Swedish industrial workers' union, IF Metall, declined to comment on GM's announcement. Hakan Johansson, a Saab worker at the Trollhattan plant, told broadcaster Swedish Radio he was devastated by the news.

"It's not a good Christmas gift," he said.

GM's failure to sell Saab is the third deal to sell an unwanted brand that has fallen through this year.

In September, auto dealership chain owner Roger Penske scrapped plans to buy Saturn after an agreement to get cars from France's Renault fell through. GM is now phasing out Saturn.

GM's board last month ended a deal to sell the European Opel brand to a group led by Canadian auto parts maker Magna International Inc., fearing that Opel was too heavily integrated into GM's global operations and that GM technology would fall into the hands of competitors.

GM will keep and restructure Opel, which unlike Saab, is considered critical to its international vehicle development.

One success has been GM's effort to sell Hummer. The brand is going to Chinese heavy equipment maker Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery Corp.

Niche brands like Saab have been especially hard hit by the drop in auto sales as the few customers in the market are looking for more mainstream models, said Rebecca Lindland, auto industry analyst for the consulting firm IHS Global Insight.

Those difficulties make it hard for GM to sell some of its smaller brands as it restructures. GM failed to find a buyer for Saturn earlier this year and backed off plans to sell Opel to a consortium of buyers.

"This is a bad time to sell your house and it is a bad time to sell car companies," Lindland said. "This market is incredibly challenging right now because these are capital intensive purchases.''

Sales of Saab cars reached an all-time high in 2006, when GM sold 133,000 cars globally. Sales slipped to 125,000 in 2007 and fell to 93,000 in 2008.

In the U.S., Saab sold 7,812 cars through November this year, down 61 percent from the same period last year. Most of those sales came from two models, the 9-7X SUV and the 9-3 sports sedan.

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KaChing Group Inc., which runs an online service that lets individual investors emulate the trading decisions of qualified skilled investors, has received $7.5 million in a financing round led by DAG Ventures.

Palo Alto-based kaChing launched its platform in October. The company charges users an average 1.25 percent annually, as compared to the 3 percent it says is common in mutual funds saving account payday loan.

The company previously raised $3 million from individuals including Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz of Andreessen Horowitz, Jeff Jordan, CEO of Open Table and former president of PayPal and various other well known venture capitalists.

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Retailers placed a lot of hope on the Thanksgiving weekend gift buying this year, but merchants failed to get the big sales boost they were seeking.

According to monthly same-store tracker Thomson Reuters, overall sales rose just 0.5% last month versus its forecast for a 2.1% increase. The figure does not include leading retailer Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500), which reports sales on a quarterly basis.

The firm tracks same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, for such large national chains as J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500), Macy’s, Target (TGT, Fortune 500) and Gap (GPS, Fortune 500).

Still, the marginal increase is an improvement over last year’s steep 7.8% decline in November.

"The fundamentals for many Americans are still weak," said Scott Hoyt, senior director of consumer economics with Moody’s Economy.com.

"Unemployment is more than 10%, wages are not growing, the effects of the stimulus measure designed to boost spending have worn out and no more are coming," he said.

Among these factors, the biggest overhang on consumer spending is the job market, Hoyt said. "Consumer spending will turn when the job market improves," he said.

Some specialty sellers were hit especially hard. Among them same-store sales at teen clothing chain Hot Topic fell 11.7%. last month. Analysts had expected a decline of 8.1%, according to sales tracker Thomson Reuters.

Children’s Place, a seller of clothing and accessories for young kids, suffered a 13% drop in its same-store sales versus expectations for a 1% increase.

Sales at another youth merchandise chain Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) slumped 17%

Elsewhere, total sales at No. 1 warehouse club operator Costco (COST, Fortune 500) rose 6% compared to a forecast for an increase of 8.1%. Target, the No payday loans with no fax. 2 discounter after Wal-Mart, said its sales declined 1.5%.

"Sales were slightly below our expectations as softer results in the first three weeks of the month were substantially offset by better-than-expected sales during our post-Thanksgiving Two-Day sale," Gregg Steinhafel, CEO of Target Corporation, said in a statement.

"For the month overall, comparable store transactions were positive and inventories remain well-controlled, giving us confidence in our ability to perform well during the holiday season in what continues to be a challenging economic environment," he said.

Sales at department store chain J.C. Penney declined 5.9%, which the company said was in line with its expectations of a decline between 4% to 7% while sales at Macy’s fell 6.1%.

But there were a few bright spots. Limited Brands, parent of Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works chains, increased its same-store sales by 3% in November and high-end seller Nordstrom logged a 2.2% gain in its sales last month.

November is a critical month for retailers since it marks the start of the year-end holiday shopping season, typically on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving.

November and December together can account for 50% or more of merchants’ annual sales and profits for the full year.

Although many Americans have had a year to absorb shocks to the economy and to their own household budgets, industry watchers say continued job losses and stagnant income growth are forcing most consumers to keep shopping with extreme caution.

Given that context, the National Retail Federation (NRF) expects holiday sales to decline 1% this year, a improvement from last year’s 3.4% drop in sales for the season. 

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State Treasurer Ben Westlund on Tuesday announced a $5 million investment in Marquam Hill Capital.

The Beaverton firm is launching a venture capital fund that will help Portland-area businesses connect with researchers at Oregon Health & Science University. The money is expected to help launch medical-related startup businesses developing products for the prevention and treatment of cancer.

The $5 million investment was made through the Oregon Growth Account, which is managed by the state treasurer.

Created in 1995, the Growth Account invests a portion of Oregon Lottery money in Oregon businesses.

To date, the program has invested roughly $93 million of state money. As of March, it had generated $18 million in earnings.

The investment is contingent on the Marquam Hill Capital Fund raising an additional $20 million.

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