Business and Finance

Confidence in the world economy dropped in February on concern worsening government finances in some European nations will derail the global recovery, according to a Bloomberg survey of users on six continents.

The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index dropped to 54.9 from 66.6 in January, when the reading was at the highest level since the series began two years ago. The index exceeded 50 for a seventh month, which means there were more optimists than pessimists. The survey was conducted last week, before Germany and other European Union nations signaled they may help support Greece’s government finances.

Greece, Spain and Portugal are among European nations struggling to control widening budget deficits, prompting investors to dump the countries’ assets and question the sustainability of the recovery in the global economy. More than $4.5 trillion has been wiped from stocks worldwide since Jan. 14, while credit-default swaps have risen as investors seek protection against deteriorating European government finances.

“The situation in Greece and other European economies shows us that the global deleveraging process is not over and governments cannot continue the pace of stimulus they’ve been undertaking,” said Venkatraman Anantha-Nageswaran, global chief investment officer at Julius Baer & Co., which manages about $142 billion in assets. “We see global confidence fluctuating from month to month as growth disappoints.”

Group of Seven

The survey of 2,486 Bloomberg users was done between Feb. 1 and Feb. 5. Since the previous survey, China unexpectedly raised reserve requirement ratios for lenders, the Group of Seven finance ministers pledged to continue economic stimulus measures and a report showed the U.S. economy expanded at the fastest pace in six years last quarter.

“People aren’t concerned about the exit strategies from countries, they’re concerned about the total debt level,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York who participated in this month’s survey. “The global economy is a little bit more unsteady than it was a month ago.”

The fallout from the budget crisis in Greece has led investors to become the most bullish on the U.S. dollar since November 2008. The dollar confidence index rose to 55.7 from 53.1 in January. Most survey respondents in Europe turned more pessimistic on the outlook for the euro, expecting it to weaken against its U.S. counterpart over the next six months.

‘Downside Risk’

“If people start worrying about a big developed economy as they did Greece, that could start to affect the global growth outlook,” said Nick Kounis, chief European economist at Fortis Bank Nederland NV in Amsterdam, and a regular survey participant ay day loans. “Credit concerns have remained well-contained for the big countries. That suggests so far the global economic outlook is not seriously affected by this, although there are big problems about public finances and it remains a downside risk.”

The confidence gauge for Western Europe fell to 49.8 from 55.5 last month, dropping below 50 for the first time since November. Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou has struggled to convince investors that the government can push its deficit below the European Union’s ceiling of 3 percent of gross domestic product.

Germany is considering assistance for Greece after the country’s deficit threatened the stability of financial markets, two lawmakers from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s governing coalition said Feb. 9. The European Union is scheduled to hold a summit in Brussels today.

Greek Tragedy

“The officials need to give a clear indication that it’s not just about fire-fighting Greece but also putting forward a wider European bailout mechanism that is applicable to other countries that get into trouble,” said Fortis’s Kounis. “That could stem the confidence crisis and boost credibility.”

A measure of U.S. participants’ confidence in the economy fell to 41.3 this month from 54.4 in January. More Americans unexpectedly filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance even as the jobless rate dropped in January, while Federal Reserve policy makers are attempting to gauge whether the economy is strong enough for them to withdraw unprecedented stimulus.

“It’s a jobless recovery,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse Group AG in New York and a regular survey participant. “The U.S. economy is still going to expand, it’s just not going to expand as quickly as the fourth quarter. We’re a long way from acceptable levels of unemployment” of about 5 percent that the Fed is comfortable with, he said.

Asia’s index fell to 70.8 in February from 79.8, while the confidence gauge for Japan dropped to 40.6 from 44.1. Japan’s government must heed the warning on soaring debt loads stemming from the turmoil in Greece and concerns about the credit quality of some European countries shouldn’t be regarded as “a burning house on the other side of the river,” Bank of Japan board member Seiji Nakamura said Feb. 4.

Most Bloomberg users were less optimistic on the outlook for their equity markets in the next six months, with respondents in the U.S., the U.K. and Spain turning bearish. Survey participants in the U.S. and Europe remained confident short-term interest rates will rise in the next six months, the survey showed.

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Manufacturing expanded in January at the fastest pace since August 2004, indicating production gains that are spearheading the U.S. recovery may soon encourage companies to hire.

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 58.4, exceeding the highest estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists, from December’s 54.9, figures from the Tempe, Arizona-based group showed. Readings greater than 50 signal expansion. A measure of factory employment rose to the highest level in almost four years.

“Manufacturing is growing, it’s going to continue to expand,” said Hugh Johnson, who manages more than $1.6 billion as chairman of Albany, New York-based Johnson Illington. His forecast of 58 was the highest in the Bloomberg survey. “Whether or not this continues to unfold will depend very heavily on final demand.”

Stocks rose after the report showed increased production may be laying the groundwork for the spending gains necessary for the expansion to be sustained. The strength in U.S. manufacturing is being accompanied by factory expansion from China to Europe, separate data also showed.

Another report today showed personal spending rose 0.2 percent in December, the third straight gain, according to the Commerce Department in Washington.

Incomes climbed 0.4 percent, exceeding expectations and propelled in part by government payments, the report said. Wages and salaries rose 0.1 percent after a 0.4 percent gain in November, showing job growth is needed to help drive consumer spending in coming months.

Employment Forecast

Employers last month may have added jobs for the second time in the last two years, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Labor Department will report the figures on Feb. 5.

President Barack Obama’s $3.8 trillion fiscal 2011 budget, released today, puts an emphasis on job creation with $100 billion in additional stimulus spending, along with higher taxes for the wealthy in an attempt to narrow the deficit.

The factory index exceeded economists’ median forecast of 55.5, according to 67 projections in a Bloomberg survey. Estimates ranged from 53.5 to 58. Manufacturing accounts for about 12 percent of the economy.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.9 percent to 1,082.96 at 12:12 p.m. in New York. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose basis points to 3.65 percent, according to BGCantor Market Data. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

European Manufacturing

The pace of global manufacturing is picking up in response to faster economic growth.

A manufacturing gauge for China climbed to a record in January as exports jumped, according to figures from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. Growth in the 16-nation euro region’s manufacturing industry accelerated more than estimated in January, according to a separate report from London-based Markit Economics.

The U.S. ISM’s production index rose to 66.2 from 59.7 and the new orders index increased to 65.9, the highest since December 2004, from 64.8.

Manufacturers such as General Electric Co. are beginning to hire and factories are stepping up production after a record reduction in inventories in 2009. The employment index rose to 53.3 in January, the highest since April 2006, from 50.2 a month earlier.

“Manufacturers are now willing to hire,” Norbert Ore, chairman of the ISM survey, said in a conference call from Atlanta. “The more I look at the data, the more this looks like a typical recovery, that is, that we see very strong growth in the front end of it.”

Unfilled Orders

The report also showed more manufacturers reported increased exports and more said they were paying higher prices for raw materials. It took longer for customers to receive their goods, a sign of stronger demand, while orders waiting to be filled also increased. Inventories were being drawn down at a slower pace.

Factories benefited from increased orders after companies pared inventories last year by a record $125 billion.

Corporate spending on new equipment is also beginning to pick up. Texas Instruments Inc., the second-largest U.S. chipmaker, said it will spend almost $1 billion this year to expand three factories and open a fourth to fill orders.

Federal Reserve officials, who left the benchmark lending rate unchanged in a range between zero and 0.25 percent on Jan. 27, noted in their policy statement that “business spending on equipment and software appears to be picking up.”

GE Hiring

GE, whose power-plant equipment generates one-third of the world’s electricity, is hiring workers in energy, health care and rail transportation. It’s bidding to supply new passenger locomotives for Amtrak and in November announced a joint venture in China that would make high-speed rail locomotives that may add 200 U.S. jobs.

“We will create jobs in the United States that could not have been created any other way,” John Rice, chief executive officer of GE Technology Infrastructure, said of the rail programs in a Jan. 28 Bloomberg Television interview.

Construction spending declined in December more than anticipated, capping the worst year on record for the industry, separate Commerce Department figures showed. Outlays dropped 1.2 percent last month as homebuilding and commercial construction dropped.

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Struggling to pay your FHA mortgage? Now you no longer have to be late with your payments to get help.

On Friday, the Federal Housing Administration announced that it will assist borrowers before they become delinquent. All you need do is prove your problems were caused by a reduction of income from a job loss, fewer paid hours, slashed wages or a decline in self-employed business earnings.

You may also qualify because of a change in household circumstances, such as a death or disability.

"The FHA has always required lenders to establish early contact with delinquent borrowers to discuss the reason for missing a payment and to evaluate reinstatement options," FHA Commissioner David Stevens said in a prepared statement. "Now servicers will have additional options for those borrowers who seek help before they go delinquent, which increases the likelihood that the borrower will be able to retain their home no fax payday loan."

The workouts available include forbearance, in which lenders agree to postpone or reduce payments for a specified period. This does not actually forgive the payments, they are just added to balance later in the mortgage term.

In more severe cases, borrowers may qualify for permanent payment reductions. This may be done by increasing the length of the loan, reducing the interest rate or even forgiving principal — or a combination of any of the three. 

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Early reports from stores on the holiday shopping season looked good. But it turns out retail sales actually fell in December, leaving economists scratching their heads about the state of the recovery.

Sales dropped 0.3 percent from November, mostly because people spent less on cars and appliances, the government said Thursday. For the year, sales fell 6.2 percent. Economists said the monthly decline could just be a blip and suggested looking at the past two months together, which would show spending rising modestly. But with unemployment high and credit tight, the report shows the recovery remains tentative.

"I wasn’t expecting this. It’s a bit of a puzzle," said Scott Hoyt, senior director of consumer economics at Moody’s Economy.com. "Consumer spending is growing very weakly, but the key thing is that it’s growing."

Retail sales have now fallen two years in a row. The decline in 2008 was much smaller, 0.5 percent. They are the only two years sales have fallen since the government started keeping records in 1992 bad credit unsecured personal loans.

For December, there was a 0.8 percent decline in auto sales, even as automakers report higher sales. That could be because fewer luxury cars were sold and automakers offered more incentives, said Jeff Schuster, executive director of automotive forecasting for J.D. Power.

The next few months still look scary for retailers. Stores are finding shoppers have little reason to buy now that the holidays have passed. January sales are off to a weaker-than-expected start, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

People "don’t see the best in front of them," said Eric Bender, retail analyst at Brean Murray, Carret & Co. "There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty."

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NEW YORK – General Motors Co. said Friday it will shut down Saab after talks to sell the brand to a Dutch carmaker collapsed, marking the third time this year that a deal by GM to sell an unwanted brand has fallen through.

GM said it had a small window of time to complete the deal and issues arose during the sale talks with Spyker Cars that could not be resolved. GM Vice President John Smith said representatives from GM, Spyker and the Swedish government were still in discussions Friday morning when talks fell apart. Smith declined to elaborate on the reasons.

"We've been trying to restart, if you will, an investment process without a great deal of time," Smith, who is in charge of GM's corporate planning and alliances, said during a conference call with reporters. "Like everybody, we would have preferred a different outcome, and we all worked very hard for that different outcome and we've come up short.''

Saab employs about 3,400 people worldwide, most of whom work at its main plant in Trollhatten, Sweden. It also has a parts distribution center and a design center in separate locations in Sweden and an engine plant in Finland.

The brand has 1,100 dealers, whom GM said will continue to honor warranties as the brand winds down.

"It's devastating. It was a very unique brand," said Ray Ciccolo, owner of two Saab dealerships in the Boston area, one of which has been in business since 1957.

The announcement marks the death of brand with a small yet loyal following. To enthusiasts, the Swedish company became appreciated for quirks like placing the ignition lock between the front seats rather than on the steering column. It was the first to offer heated seating in 1971.

GM bought a 50 percent stake and management control of Saab for $600 million after Saab split from Swedish truck maker Scania in 1989. It bought full ownership in 2000 for $125 million. But even after the GM takeover, Saab remained closely associated with Sweden and its history of making safe, reliable cars.

GM never made money on the acquisition and industry analysts complained that under GM, Saab lost its uniqueness in the crowded luxury segment.

GM first sought a buyer for Saab in January as part of its restructuring, which included plans to cut the number of its brands to four from eight. It was previously in talks to sell Saab to a consortium led by the Swedish sports car maker Koenigsegg Group AB, but it turned to Spyker after Koenigsegg withdrew from the talks in November.

GM's Smith said it is possible other buyers could emerge, adding that the brand still has vehicles in development "that might be attractive to some folks." But no such buyers have stepped forward and the liquidation of the brand will begin in early January.

"I can't rule it out, but I guess the clock starts now … on those kinds of expressions of interest," Smith said. He declined to say how much it might cost to wind down the brand.

On Monday, China's Beijing Automotive Industry Holdings – originally part of the Koenigsegg consortium – announced it had agreed to buy some powertrain technology from Saab personal loans for bad credit. It gave no details of costs or timing of that purchase.

On Friday, Beijing Autos said it wants to explore further cooperation with GM's Saab Automobile such as "new energy vehicles." However, Smith said the company has not shown any interest in buying the rest of the brand.

The Swedish government called the decision "surprising and regretful.''

"It's GM who took this decision, on their own grounds, and they have to answer to that by themselves," Enterprise Minister Maud Olofsson said at a news conference in Trollhattan.

Representatives of the Swedish industrial workers' union, IF Metall, declined to comment on GM's announcement. Hakan Johansson, a Saab worker at the Trollhattan plant, told broadcaster Swedish Radio he was devastated by the news.

"It's not a good Christmas gift," he said.

GM's failure to sell Saab is the third deal to sell an unwanted brand that has fallen through this year.

In September, auto dealership chain owner Roger Penske scrapped plans to buy Saturn after an agreement to get cars from France's Renault fell through. GM is now phasing out Saturn.

GM's board last month ended a deal to sell the European Opel brand to a group led by Canadian auto parts maker Magna International Inc., fearing that Opel was too heavily integrated into GM's global operations and that GM technology would fall into the hands of competitors.

GM will keep and restructure Opel, which unlike Saab, is considered critical to its international vehicle development.

One success has been GM's effort to sell Hummer. The brand is going to Chinese heavy equipment maker Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery Corp.

Niche brands like Saab have been especially hard hit by the drop in auto sales as the few customers in the market are looking for more mainstream models, said Rebecca Lindland, auto industry analyst for the consulting firm IHS Global Insight.

Those difficulties make it hard for GM to sell some of its smaller brands as it restructures. GM failed to find a buyer for Saturn earlier this year and backed off plans to sell Opel to a consortium of buyers.

"This is a bad time to sell your house and it is a bad time to sell car companies," Lindland said. "This market is incredibly challenging right now because these are capital intensive purchases.''

Sales of Saab cars reached an all-time high in 2006, when GM sold 133,000 cars globally. Sales slipped to 125,000 in 2007 and fell to 93,000 in 2008.

In the U.S., Saab sold 7,812 cars through November this year, down 61 percent from the same period last year. Most of those sales came from two models, the 9-7X SUV and the 9-3 sports sedan.

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The Toronto Stock market ended the session in positive territory after investors pulled up energy stocks in hopes that Exxon Mobil's US$31-billion acquisition of U.S. oil and gas company XTO Energy Inc. could mean other deals in the sector.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed 121.76 points higher to 11,545.69, with shares of nearly every major Canadian energy player higher.

The energy sector was up 2.2 per cent as investors speculated over other possible takeovers within the industry.

The January crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed the session down 36 cents to US$69.51 a barrel.

Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi's $10-billion bailout to Dubai gave markets a jolt of optimism. The debt repayments quelled fears that the emirate would default and signal a new round of broader credit problems.

"What we're seeing is continued small steps towards fixing in the financial system, towards strengthening the various places that are weak," said Kate Warne, Canadian markets specialist at Edward Jones in St. Louis.

"That certainly doesn't eliminate all the possible things that can go wrong, but every small step is a step in the right direction."

TSX gold stocks were up 1.5 per cent as the February bullion contract on the Nymex rose $3.90 to US$1,122.80 an ounce.

The base metals sector launched the biggest gain of the day, up 2.9 per cent as the March copper contract gained two cents to US$3.15 a pound.

The Canadian dollar gained 0.05 of a cent to 94.40 cents U.S., while the TSX Venture Exchange was up 7.97 points to 1,425.08.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average moved up 29.55 points to 10,501.05. The Nasdaq composite index gained 21 guaranteed payday loan.79 points to 2,212.10, while the S&P 500 index climbed 7.7 points to 1,114.11.

Citigroup Inc. said it will pay back $20 billion in bailout money it received as part of the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program.

The New York-based bank was hardest hit by the credit crisis and rising loan defaults, receiving a total of $45 billion in government support. It only needs to pay back $20 billion because the remaining $25 billion was converted into a 34 per cent ownership stake in the bank earlier this year.

Statistics Canada reported that Canadian industries operated at 67.5 per cent of their production capacity in the third quarter, down marginally from 67.7 in the second quarter.

Also in the energy sector, Husky Energy Inc. (TSX: HSE) shares moved higher after the company said it plans to increase its capital spending by 20 per cent to $3.1 billion in 2010. Shares rose 1.6 per cent, or 48 cents, to $28.98.

Inter Pipeline Fund (TSX: IPL.UN) units gained 11 cents to $10.93 after the company announced it plans capital expenditures of more than $292 million next year, with most of it going toward its oil sands transportation segment.

TMX Group (TSX: X) shares were up 98 cents to $31.34 after it announced it will distribute trading data across U.S. and Europe on NYSE network under new data technology and distribution agreement.

Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. (TSX: KGI) said a borehole collapse widened net losses to $10.3 million for the quarter ended Oct. 31, and weakened revenues to $6.9 million, from $8.8 million last year. Shares rose 16 cents to $9.45.

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An "excessively loud" triceratops and a little girl’s chemical-laced purse were among the items listed in the U.S. Public Interest Research Group’s 2009 list of dangerous toys released Tuesday.

The 24th annual report, "Trouble in Toyland," targeted 16 examples of toys in 3 categories: toys that it considers dangerously loud, or containing small parts that may present choking hazards for small children, or containing toxic chemicals or lead.

The toys are made or marketed by various companies throughout the world.

Small parts

In the first category, the PIRG, a public advocacy organization, listed toys that "pose potential choking hazards." This included three toys that "may violate" the ban on small parts for children under three, such as the Creative Wood Stacking Rings from Zaidy Products, the Real Wood Shape Sorter Barn from P&C Enterprise and an "unnamed play food tray" from World Market.

The PIRG also identified several toys with small parts that come uncomfortably close to violating bans, thereby posing potential hazards. This includes one of the Baby Born toy kids from Zapf Creation, the Pizza Planet Gift Pak from Mattel, the FurReal Baby Bird from Hasbro (HAS) and the Worky tool set from Nemmer.

"Although the toys do not violate the letter of the law, these parts could block a child’s airway given their shape and size," the report said.

The report said that the baby bottle included with the FurReal Baby Bird "barely passes the small parts test." But Hasbro said the "allegations are false."

"The FurReal Friends product does not contain small parts, is properly age graded for kids four and up, and the packaging contains the appropriate labeling," said a Hasbro spokeswoman, in an e-mail.

Excessively loud

The PIRG also listed several toys deemed "excessively loud" at close range, meaning that they match or exceed 85 decibels within 25 centimeters of the toy, presenting a risk of hearing loss.

The organization pegged the loud toys as the Kota and Pals Stompers Triceratops from Playskool, the Secret Saturdays Cryptid Claw from Mattel (MAT, Fortune 500), the Laugh & Learn Learning Phone from Fisher Price and the Bright Lights Phone from VTech.

Hasbro said, in an e-mail to CNNMoney.com, that its triceratops "complies with all sound requirements."

Lead and chemicals

Five products made the list for containing lead or "potentially toxic chemicals."

This includes a Touch and Feel Cloth Book called "Big Rex and Friends" from Priddy Books. The PIRG said that a red dot on one of the pages contains lead. Likewise, the Alligator Cell Phone charm from the Claire’s retail chain also contains lead, the organization said easy payday loan.

The organization also identified a Collector’s Series toy duck that has lead paint on its face and body. The organization said that the manufacturer of this toy was unknown, but that it was purchased at a Dollar Tree store.

A Dollar Tree spokesman told CNNMoney.com that PIRG informed his company of the lead-tainted duck on Oct. 29, and it was removed from stores at that time.

The PIRG identified two toys containing "potentially toxic" chemicals known as phthalates, including Pretty Princess Puppy Purse from Claire’s and the Elmo Lunch Bag from Fast Forward New York. (See correction.)

A spokesman for Claire’s, Steven Anreder, said the retailer is no longer selling the alligator phone charm. He also said the charm and the puppy purse are not toys.

The organization initially reported that Sassy manufactured the Elmo Lunch Bag. But Rick Locker, a lawyer representing Sassy, told CNNMoney.com that Sassy had nothing to do with the product. He sent the PIRG a letter requesting them to "cease and desist from disseminating erroneous information." The PIRG retracted the misidentification and said it regretted the error.

Efforts to reach other companies named in the report were not immediately successful.

A toy industry group reacted to the PIRG list.

"Protecting children will always be the toy industry’s highest priority," said Joan Lawrence, vice president of safety standards for the Toy Industry Association, in an e-mail to CNNMoney.com. "Consumers have every reason to trust the safety of the three billion toys sold in America each year."

Jonathan Samet, publisher of thetoyinsider.com, an industry observer, said that he didn’t want to minimize PIRG’s warnings, but the noise warnings did not concern him as much as choking and lead.

"Choking is obviously the biggest issue," he said. "Right now, I think safety testing is at its highest level that it’s probably ever been. If you are concerned, then take the toy away from the child and either return the toy to the retailer or just throw it away."

The PIRG released its list just three days ahead of Black Friday, one of the busiest shopping days of the year. This year, Black Friday retail sales are expected to outpace 2008, with 16% more shoppers participating.

Correction: An earlier version of this article, because of erroneous information released by U.S. PIRG, listed an incorrect manufacturer of the Elmo Lunch Bag.  

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Home builders initiated construction of far fewer new homes in October than the month before, a big and unexpected drop for the struggling industry, according to a government report issued Wednesday.

Homebuilders began construction at an annual rate of 529,000 new homes during the month, 10.6% below the revised September rate of 592,000 and 30.7% below the 763,000 rate during October 2008. It was the lowest level of housing starts since April, when the annual rate was 479,000.

A panel of industry observers compiled by Briefing.com had forecast housing starts of 600,000 during the month. It was the second month in a row of dashed housing start expectations.

"The numbers stink," said real estate analyst Mike Larson of Weiss Research. "They’re negative across the board."

That weakness included the number of building permits issued in October, which fell to seasonally adjusted annual rate of 552,000. That was 4% below the revised September rate of 575,000 and 24.3% below the October 2008 estimate of 729,000.

The slowdown in construction means that there are many fewer new homes for sale, about 251,000 in all. That’s the smallest inventory since 1982, according to Larson.

"The new home market, which was dramatically oversupplied during the boom, is now dramatically undersupplied," he said.

Part of the reason for the lack of building activity is high foreclosure rates cash advance now. Those discourage builders, according to Larson. Many of the foreclosures compete directly with new homes for buyers.

"That’s one reason why builders are not being aggressive," he said. "There are a lot of nearly new homes that banks are holding and trying to sell. That keeps the new home market relatively weak."

Since the tax credit was reinstated, October may represent a deep valley in new home start stats. By then, the credit had ceased to be of value to builders, according to David Crowe, the chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders.

"By October, there was no way to start a home and have time to finish it and sell it before the credit ended," he said.

Crowe expects to see starts to begin increasing again with the tax credit extension. "November figures should reflect some renewed builder confidence," he said.

New home construction forms a big part of the nation’s economy. When people buy new homes, they also purchase many products to fill them.

Fewer new homes being built may be a bad sign that the impact of the government’s economic stimulus package may be limited. 

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The cost of living in the U.S. rose more than forecast in October as Americans paid more for fuel, while so-called core prices held at a pace that supports the Federal Reserve’s forecast for tame inflation.

The 0.3 percent rise in the consumer-price index followed a 0.2 percent increase in September, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Excluding food and energy costs, the core index rose 0.2 percent for a second month.

Unemployment at a 26-year high of 10.2 percent and wages that were down 5.2 percent in September from a year earlier are giving companies such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. little room to raise prices. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Nov. 16 that the economic “headwinds” will limit the recovery, allowing interest rates to stay low for an “extended period.”

“I don’t see anything in the report that suggests there’s any real inflation flare-up,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. “The Fed is comfortably on hold.”

Economists forecast the consumer price index would rise 0.2 percent, according to the median of 78 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a decline of 0.2 percent to a rise of 0.5 percent.

The core index was forecast to rise 0.1 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey.

Housing Starts Fall

U.S. stock-index futures erased gains after the Commerce Department said housing starts unexpectedly plunged 11 percent last month to the lowest level since April. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were down 0.1 percent to 1,106.0 at 9:02 a.m. after rising as much as 0.3 percent.

Treasuries remained lower after the consumer price report and before the U.S. announces tomorrow the amounts of 2-, 5- and 7-year notes it will sell next week. The 10-year note yield rose two basis points to 3.34 percent at 8:35 a.m. in New York.

Compared with a year earlier, consumer prices were down 0.2 percent. Core prices rose 1.7 percent from October 2008 after a 1.5 percent year-over-year gain in September.

Energy costs increased 1.5 percent in October, led by fuel oil and gasoline.

The year-over-year declines in the consumer price index are getting smaller as crude oil prices increase from an almost five-year low in December 2008.

Crude Oil

The U.S. on Nov. 10 raised its forecast for crude oil prices this year and next on speculation that demand will rise as the global economy improves. West Texas Intermediate oil, the U loan till payday.S. benchmark, will average $62 a barrel in 2009, up from last month’s forecast of $59.90. Crude oil will average $78.13 in 2010, according to the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report from the Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration.

Crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange averaged $75.82 a barrel in October, compared with $69.47 in September. Prices have continued to increase this month, averaging $78.69.

Gasoline prices in October averaged $2.56 a gallon in October, compared with $2.55 a month earlier, according to AAA.

Food prices, which account for 14.6 percent of the CPI, increased 0.1 percent in October, reflecting higher dairy costs. Prices for meats and fruits and vegetables declined during the month.

Walmart Cost Cuts

Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, is experiencing “ongoing deflation across our businesses,” Michael T. Durke, the Bentonville, Arkansas-based company’s chief executive officer said Nov. 12. Walmart accelerated efforts to cut costs in the third quarter as falling food prices and the worst U.S. unemployment rate in a quarter century muted revenue.

Owners-equivalent rent, one of the categories used to track rental prices, was unchanged. In September, the measure dropped 0.1 percent, the first decline since 1992.

Costs of medical care increased 0.2 percent in October and are up 3.5 percent from the same month last year. Airline fares rose 1.7 percent last month.

The CPI is the broadest of the three monthly price gauges from the Labor Department because it includes goods and services. A report yesterday showed wholesale prices rose 0.3 percent. The cost of imported goods rose 0.7 percent, the government said last week.

Almost 60 percent of the CPI covers prices consumers pay for services ranging from medical visits to airline fares and movie tickets.

The Fed earlier this month repeated that it will keep interest rates near zero for “an extended period” and specified for the first time that policy will stay unchanged as long as inflation expectations are stable and unemployment fails to decline.

“Inflation seems likely to remain subdued for some time,” Bernanke said in a Nov. 16 speech to the Economic Club of New York. The weak labor market and reduced bank lending He also said “significant economic challenges remain.”

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Investors will brace for a spate of economic reports this week with their fingers crossed that there is more good news than bad since that will set the tone for the remaining seven weeks of the year.

With Black Friday less than two weeks away, retailers are hoping consumers will be willing to open their wallets during the all-important holiday sales period, helping fuel the economic recovery.

Kicking off the week will be the government’s monthly retail sales report, which investors hope will shed light on how much consumers will be willing to spend.

"Next week is all about consumer spending and the holiday," said Burt White, chief investment officer at LPL Financial.

Retail sales have shown some improvement recently, suggesting that consumers are suffering from "frugal fatigue" and may be more willing to splurge this holiday season, White said.

A rebound in consumer spending, which accounts for the bulk of U.S. economic activity, could help fuel bets that a recovery is firmly underway.

The outlook for consumer spending remains murky with the national unemployment rate at a 26-year high of 10.2%.

"In this environment, anything associated with jobs is probably the most important thing," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial.

To that end, investors will likely pay close attention to Thursday’s report on the number of Americans filing first-time claims for state unemployment benefits.

Investors will also focus on the plight of the U.S. dollar, which wallowed near a 15-month low against the euro for most of last week.

The dollar has been taking a beating recently as investors take advantage of rock-bottom interest rates in the United States to bulk up on more risky assets.

"For now, it’s still sell the dollar and buy risk," White said. "It’s a crowded trade, but a good one."

Stocks ended the week on a high note, logging the second consecutive week of gains as optimism about the recovery gained momentum. The question on investors’ minds this week will be ‘can that momentum be sustained?’

Eyes on Bernanke

Demand for riskier assets, like equities, could hit a speed bump Monday afternoon with Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke scheduled to deliver an economic outlook speech at the Economic Club of New York.

While the central bank is not responsible for managing currency fluctuations, some analysts think Bernanke may strike a more hawkish tone given the severity of the greenback’s recent weakness payday loan companies.

Others expect Bernanke to echo recent official policy statements that interest rates will remain "exceptionally low" for an "extended period" of time.

On the docket

Monday: The week starts with a closely watched report on October retail sales before the opening bell.

Economists expect the Commerce Department to report that sales rose 0.9% last month after 1.5% drop, according to consensus estimates gathered by Briefing.com.

Also due Monday morning, a report on manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region and business inventory data from September.

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will speak about the outlook for the U.S. economy in New York at midday.

Tuesday: The government’s producer price index comes out before the market opens. Analysts think prices at the wholesale level ticked up 0.5% in October. Excluding volatile energy prices, the index is forecast to rise 0.1%.

Government figures on capacity utilization and industrial production in October are due out at 9:15 a.m. ET.

The market will also digest quarterly financial results from Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500), Target (TGT, Fortune 500) and TJX Companies (TJX, Fortune 500) before the opening bell.

Wednesday: The housing market will be in focus with reports on housing starts and building permits released before the market opens.

Also before the opening bell, the government’s closely-watched inflation gauge is expected to show that consumer prices were flat in October. Excluding food and energy, prices are expected to have risen 0.1% last month after a 0.2% increase the month before.

Thursday: The Labor Department reports on the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Jobless claims fell to 502,000 filings last week and analysts say a figure below 500,000 this week could help push the market higher.

A report on leading economic indicators comes out after the market opens.

Sears Holdings (SHLD, Fortune 500) will report quarterly earnings in the morning, while PC giant HP (HPQ, Fortune 500) and apparel-maker Gap (GAP, Fortune 500) will post earnings after the closing bell.

Friday: No economic reports are on the docket. 

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