Business and Finance

Japan’s housing starts fell to the lowest level since the nation celebrated its postwar recovery by hosting the Olympics in 1964, as builders were hobbled by dwindling household incomes and sustained deflation.

Construction companies broke ground on 788,410 homes last year, 27.9 percent fewer than in 2008, the Land Ministry said today in Tokyo. That was the lowest since 751,429 recorded in 1964. The pace of decrease eased in the past four months.

The report highlights a decline that’s likely to see Japan lose its place as the world’s second-largest economy to China this year. Government programs to stimulate the property market have been unable to reverse expectations that home prices will fall, keeping households away from investing in real estate.

“It’s been a very miserable year,” Richard Jerram, chief economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Tokyo, said before the report was published. “There certainly is an improvement underway, but it’s been slow to materialize, and it’s starting from very low levels.”

Falling wages and mounting job losses sapped demand for new homes last year, sending apartment builder Anabuki Construction Inc. into bankruptcy in November.

Housing starts fell 15.7 percent in December from a year earlier, the slowest pace in a year, today’s report showed.

Other figures today signaled that the economy continues to recover from its worst postwar recession.

Deflation Continues

Industrial production rose for a 10th month in December, households increased spending and the unemployment rate fell to 5.1 percent. At the same time, consumer prices slid for a 10th month and minutes of Bank of Japan meetings showed officials were concerned that deflation and a rising yen would hamper the recovery.

Japan has been blighted by price declines and sluggish economic growth since an asset bubble burst two decades ago. An index of residential land prices has slid more than 40 percent from its 1991 peak, Japan Real Estate Institute data show.

Respondents in a Bank of Japan survey released this month said they expect property values to slump for a seventh quarter. The central bank’s index of household expectations for future land prices dropped, reversing two quarters of improvements.

The average price of condominiums fell 5 percent last year in the metropolitan area of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba, according to the Real Estate Economic Institute. Nationwide residential land prices slid 3.2 percent in 2009 after rising for the previous two years, Land Ministry data show.

Sharing Rooms

“More people are asking for discounts, or are looking to share rooms with others,” said Wataru Ichinari, president of Tokyo-based Ichinari Real Estate. “We’re not going to see a full-fledged recovery in the housing market” for at least a couple of years, he said.

Policy makers are trying to revive the market. Former Prime Minister Taro Aso’s administration expanded and extended tax deductions on housing loans. The current government under Yukio Hatoyama included incentives to build and renovate energy-efficient homes in a 7.2 trillion yen ($80 billion) stimulus package passed by parliament yesterday.

The housing recession is depleting business at the country’s construction firms. Anabuki Construction filed for bankruptcy with 140 billion yen in debt, becoming the country’s sixth-largest corporate failure last year, according to Tokyo Shoko Research Ltd. Profits in Anabuki’s condominium business plunged following the global financial crisis, the company said in a statement on its Web site.

Construction Bankruptcies

Bankruptcies in the construction industry last year accounted for more than a quarter of 15,480 failures, the highest among all industries, according to Tokyo Shoko.

Even as the employment market starts to improve, the jobless rate has been above 5 percent since last April and wages have slumped for 16 straight months. Employee compensation will slide a record 3.9 percent in the fiscal year ending March 31, and a further 0.7 percent in the following 12 months, the government said last week.

The job environment will further dissuade potential home buyers, said Hiroshi Miyazaki, chief economist at Shinkin Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “With unemployment so high and wages dwindling, households just aren’t going to be in the mood to buy a new home.”

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Struggling to pay your FHA mortgage? Now you no longer have to be late with your payments to get help.

On Friday, the Federal Housing Administration announced that it will assist borrowers before they become delinquent. All you need do is prove your problems were caused by a reduction of income from a job loss, fewer paid hours, slashed wages or a decline in self-employed business earnings.

You may also qualify because of a change in household circumstances, such as a death or disability.

"The FHA has always required lenders to establish early contact with delinquent borrowers to discuss the reason for missing a payment and to evaluate reinstatement options," FHA Commissioner David Stevens said in a prepared statement. "Now servicers will have additional options for those borrowers who seek help before they go delinquent, which increases the likelihood that the borrower will be able to retain their home no fax payday loan."

The workouts available include forbearance, in which lenders agree to postpone or reduce payments for a specified period. This does not actually forgive the payments, they are just added to balance later in the mortgage term.

In more severe cases, borrowers may qualify for permanent payment reductions. This may be done by increasing the length of the loan, reducing the interest rate or even forgiving principal — or a combination of any of the three. 

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Greece should remain in the euro region where its problems “will be unequivocally easier to solve,” rather than allowing a new currency to devalue, pushing up inflation and interest rates, the central bank governor said.

A new currency would not be like “waving a magic wand,” George Provopoulos said in an article for the Financial Times. A weakened currency could increase the cost of imports, stoking inflation, and boost the cost of servicing public debt.

Concern that Greece’s government will struggle to tame the European Union’s biggest budget deficit this week pushed the yield premium investors demand to hold the nation’s debt instead of German bunds to the highest since the euro’s debut in 1999. Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said yesterday that Greece won’t need a rescue package to reduce its debt.

“It will be immensely less costly for Greece to eradicate its problems from within the euro zone,” Provopoulos wrote. “Greece will not be tempted by these short-term options, but will undertake the necessary, bold adjustments.”

Greece’s debt has contributed to a slide in the euro against the U.S. dollar. The euro traded at $1.4124 at 3:01 p.m. in Sydney, close to its lowest level in almost six months.

‘Homer’s Sirens’

The idea of Greece leaving Europe’s monetary union “is based on flawed reasoning,” Provopoulos said fast cash online. “Those who suggest Greece might leave the euro zone are like Homer’s sirens.”

Prime Minister George Papandreou has said that the “unprecedented” crisis in Greece has led to “discussion on the euro, if the currency is stable.” He said there is “not one day to lose” in bolstering the nation’s finances.

Finance Minister Papaconstantinou denied a report yesterday in EuropeanVoice that EU officials were looking into a possible loan to help Greece tackle its deficit, the highest in the region at 12.7 percent of economic output. Amelia Torres, the spokeswoman for EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia, said she wasn’t aware of any talks on a loan. A spokesman for the European Central Bank declined to comment.

Germany said it won’t support any EU loan to help Greece cut its deficit. “Greece must solve its problems through its own efforts,” German Finance Ministry spokesman Michael Offer said yesterday in an e-mailed statement.

While Greece’s problems are “extremely serious,” its economic future is “unwaveringly tied to the mast provided by the euro,” Provopoulos wrote in the Financial Times. “It will be unequivocally easier to solve these problems from within the euro area,” he said.

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Sri Lanka’s central bank Governor Nivard Cabraal kept benchmark interest rates unchanged at a five-year low to spur investments and aid economic growth after the end of a 26-year civil war.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka left the reverse repurchase rate at 9.75 percent, the Colombo-based bank said. The repurchase rate was also maintained at 7.5 percent. The economy will expand more than 6 percent this year, Cabraal said in a Bloomberg Television interview today.

“The rate is sufficient to stimulate growth as well as ensure that any risk of inflation is also curtailed,” Cabraal said. “We need not have any fear” of inflation now, he said.

The island’s biggest companies including John Keells Holdings Plc and Aitken Spence & Co. are expanding their hotel and shipping businesses to take advantage of a rebound in the $41 billion economy. President Mahinda Rajapaksa is holding an election two years before his mandate expires after the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam rebels in May helped push growth above 4 percent in the third quarter.

“Growth will likely take off, especially in the second half of the year, with rates and inflation still low,” said Bimanee Meepagala, an analyst at NDB Aviva Wealth Management Ltd., the nation’s biggest non-state fund.

The benchmark stock index rose 0.1 percent at 9:35 a.m. in Colombo. The Sri Lankan rupee traded at 114.15 to the dollar compared with 114.26 yesterday, according to Bloomberg data.

Close Election

“Markets, especially equities, are waiting for direction after the election, Meepagala said. “The rate decision was mostly expected. There will be some volatility leading up to the elections as it’s expected to be a very close race.”

Sri Lanka’s benchmark stock index, the Colombo All-Share Index, jumped 125 percent last year, outperforming the rest of Asia and trailing only Russia worldwide, on prospects of an economic rebound in the Indian Ocean island.

The country’s inflation rate was 4.8 percent in December, less than half that in January 2009. Today’s rate decision took into consideration a potential pickup in inflation, Cabraal said in the interview before the central bank policy statement.

“Projections of inflation for 2010 indicate benign inflationary pressures, enabling inflation to be in single digits by year end,” the central bank said in the statement.

Faster Growth

The economy may grow 7 percent in 2010, the fastest pace in four years, spurred by company investments and construction of new roads, ports and power plants, Cabraal said Jan. 4.

“The central bank wants loan books to grow and money to flow into the economy,” Saminda Weerasinghe, research manager at Acuity Stockbrokers Pvt. in Colombo, said before the report. “Inflation pressures aren’t that great.”

John Keells, Sri Lanka’s biggest diversified company, said in November it will invest about $100 million to build new resorts to benefit from a tourism revival after the war.

Aitken Spence, Sri Lanka’s biggest operator of resorts, plans to expand its hotel and shipping businesses while Commercial Bank of Ceylon Plc, the nation’s biggest private lender by assets, aims to extend more loans in the northern and eastern regions, which were recaptured from the Tamil Tigers.

Rajapaksa scheduled presidential elections to be held on Jan. 26, betting the economy’s recovery will boost his popularity.

Cabraal has kept interest rates unchanged for two straight months. He lowered the central bank’s reverse repurchase rate by 75 basis points and the repurchase rate by 50 basis points in November. A basis point is 0.01 of a percentage point.

“We have seen a sharp increase in lending during the past month which indicates to us there is stimulation taking place,” Cabraal said. “If we find there is a bubble being formed or too much liquidity being created, then we would think it’s time for us to increase the rates. But we haven’t seen any such danger right now.”

The International Monetary Fund, which granted Sri Lanka a $2.6 billion aid package in July, expects the island’s economic growth and credit demand to pick up.

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Early reports from stores on the holiday shopping season looked good. But it turns out retail sales actually fell in December, leaving economists scratching their heads about the state of the recovery.

Sales dropped 0.3 percent from November, mostly because people spent less on cars and appliances, the government said Thursday. For the year, sales fell 6.2 percent. Economists said the monthly decline could just be a blip and suggested looking at the past two months together, which would show spending rising modestly. But with unemployment high and credit tight, the report shows the recovery remains tentative.

"I wasn’t expecting this. It’s a bit of a puzzle," said Scott Hoyt, senior director of consumer economics at Moody’s Economy.com. "Consumer spending is growing very weakly, but the key thing is that it’s growing."

Retail sales have now fallen two years in a row. The decline in 2008 was much smaller, 0.5 percent. They are the only two years sales have fallen since the government started keeping records in 1992 bad credit unsecured personal loans.

For December, there was a 0.8 percent decline in auto sales, even as automakers report higher sales. That could be because fewer luxury cars were sold and automakers offered more incentives, said Jeff Schuster, executive director of automotive forecasting for J.D. Power.

The next few months still look scary for retailers. Stores are finding shoppers have little reason to buy now that the holidays have passed. January sales are off to a weaker-than-expected start, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

People "don’t see the best in front of them," said Eric Bender, retail analyst at Brean Murray, Carret & Co. "There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty."

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Takuji Okubo, former senior director at Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co. in Tokyo, has joined Societe Generale SA as its chief Japan economist.

Okubo starts work today for the Paris-based bank in the newly created position, Glenn Maguire, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong, wrote in an e-mail to Bloomberg News.

Okubo was employed at Merrill Lynch from 2007 to 2009 after working for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Tokyo.

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Four decades ago Stewart Brand opened The Whole Earth Catalog with a rollicking mission statement: "We are as gods, and might as well get good at it."

It was an apt mantra for the eco-friendly, do-it-yourself lifestyle guide, which was so clever it won a National Book Award. Now a futurist, author, and business consultant, Brand opens his latest book, Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto, with an urgent update of his youthful declaration: "We are as gods and HAVE to get good at it."

The cause for urgency is climate change. Until 2003, Brand writes, "I had only the usual concerns" about the seemingly "dire but distant" issue. Then he saw studies of Greenland ice cores revealing that, in the past, the climate has tipped into a radically different state, such as an ice age, in less than a decade.

Runaway positive feedback is the likely cause. Here’s an example: As human greenhouse emissions mount, global warming causes mirror-like polar ice to give way to dark ocean. That makes the Arctic absorb more solar heat, which melts more ice, leading to yet more heat absorption. This and other positive feedbacks are likely driving the ominously fast melting of Arctic ice, which was half gone by the summer of 2007, three to four decades earlier than predicted — the great melt is unfolding with tipping-point-like speed.

Channeling climate scientists, Brand predicts that fresh water and other resources will be in desperately short supply in many areas of a climate-changed world. A global state of constant war over dwindling resources might well ensue, killing billions.

Too dire? Consider: Tibetan Plateau glaciers, which feed shared rivers of China, India, Pakistan, and other Asian countries, are now melting away to expose a drought-prone tinderbox filled with vying nuclear powers, as well as "feral zones" controlled by Al Qaeda and its allies. If increasingly plausible worst-case scenarios play out, Brand tersely observes, "we’re ants on a burning log."

His scary analysis is the setup for a hopeful, though controversial, message: All may still be well if we get really good at using tools many Greens love to hate cash advance payday loans. To wit: urbanization (which enables efficiencies of scale and lower per-capita use of resources), nuclear power (to displace coal’s heavy greenhouse emissions), biotech (to engender, among other things, biofuel-producing microbes and drought-resistant crops), and geoengineering (such as lofting megatons of smoky particulates into the stratosphere to block sunlight and cool the climate).

Brand’s case for parting ways with environmentalism’s old guard rests largely on surprising developments that, he freely acknowledges, have shown some of his former views were wrong. Who knew that the rise of developing-world megacities, with their sprawling slums, would defuse the population bomb? (In rural villages, Brand notes, "every additional child is an asset, but in the slum, every additional child is a liability, so the newly liberated women in town focus on education and opportunity — on fewer, higher-quality children.")

That the expected number of excess cancers from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster would now be less than 1% of initial projections, and that the Chernobyl area would be a uniquely biodiverse wildlife sanctuary teeming with rare species? That the widespread cultivation of bioengineered corn, once thought to kill monarch butterflies, appears to be greatly benefiting them?

Not surprisingly, Brand’s iconoclasm has heated up the blogosphere, and some deep-dyed Greens apparently feel the trailblazer whose whole-earth visions seeded the first Earth Day in 1970 is doing a Lieberman.

Wrong.

Brand has always been an Obama-like, big-picture pragmatist — his famous catalog’s supreme virtue was its usefulness. And while some of his positions cry out for debate — I’m not sure I’d trust a real god to attempt geoengineering, much less us fumbling, self-taught ones — no one has brought more breadth, clarity, and cogency to bear on the biggest issue of our time. At 70, environmentalism’s pithiest polemicist has outdone himself, giving us one of the most important green tracts since Silent Spring. Read it. 

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Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd. Chairman Stephen Roach said U.S. policy makers should start to exit emergency stimulus measures now if the economic recovery is as strong as they say it is.

“There is never an easy time to do it,” Roach said on Bloomberg Television today. “The longer they wait, the greater the chance they sow the seeds for the next bubble. So I’m in favor of an early exit strategy.”

The Federal Reserve on Dec. 16 pledged to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for an “extended period” even as officials said financial markets were healthy enough to allow most emergency lending programs to expire at the end of this month. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow policy makers cut the benchmark rate almost to zero in December 2008.

“We’ve seen the most extraordinary monetary stimulus on the record in the 15, 16 months post-Lehman Brothers,” Roach said. “We’ll have to see the most extraordinary withdrawal of stimulus on record” and “if this recovery is as strong as Bernanke and markets think it is, the time to exit is now.”

Data since the Nov. 3-4 Fed meeting showed that “economic activity has continued to pick up and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating,” the Open Market Committee said in a Dec. 16 statement. “Financial market conditions have become more supportive of economic growth,” while the economy is “likely to remain weak for a time,” policy makers said free business cards.

Roach, in a separate interview on WBBR radio, also disagreed with Bernanke’s argument put forward on Jan. 3 that low central bank interest rates didn’t cause the housing bubble of the past decade.

‘Ludicrous’ Claim

“I think it’s ludicrous to think that monetary policy didn’t play any role in causing the so-called subprime crisis,” Roach said. “Bernanke is really digging in his heels here, this is a point of view that he developed as an academic when he was at Princeton.”

Roach argued during the boom that central banks should prevent asset prices from rising too far, in contrast with Fed officials including former Chairman Alan Greenspan.

Bernanke “embraced Greenspan’s philosophy in the same fashion, arguing that monetary policy should not be used to address asset bubbles, this is more of a regulatory oversight issue,” Roach said. “The regulatory oversight function failed hugely in the last seven or eight years but I would argue so did monetary policy.”

“I think we need to take a very careful look at monetary policy and central bankers who do not believe that interest rates played a role in this crisis,” he said. “I think that view is dead wrong.”

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GMAC Inc., the auto and home lender bailed out twice by the U.S. government, received a third rescue package valued at $3.79 billion that gives taxpayers a majority stake in the Detroit-based company.

The infusion will bolster lending at GMAC as it absorbs $3.8 billion in new pretax charges and decides what to do with its loss-plagued home mortgage unit, according to statements from the agency and the company yesterday. The aid comes on top of about $13.5 billion previously earmarked for GMAC, which regulators have said is crucial to the U.S. auto industry.

Chief Executive Officer Michael Carpenter is struggling to return the lender to profitability amid losses at the Residential Capital mortgage unit, known as ResCap, which GMAC may close or sell. GMAC is the primary lender to General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC, the automakers that went into bankruptcy during the recession.

“We needed the capital in this order of magnitude; we weren’t arguing for less,” Carpenter said in a phone interview. “As the business becomes proportionally more and more of an auto-finance business, one of the lowest-risk businesses there is, my hope is that the capital ratios we need will get relaxed over time.”

The rescue package calls for the Treasury to buy $2.54 billion of trust preferred securities that pay 8 percent, and $1.25 billion of mandatory convertible preferred stock, known as MCP, at 9 percent, according to the statements. The government also received warrants to buy more securities.

‘They Need GMAC’

“The Obama administration has decided to keep GM alive one way or the other and they need GMAC to do it,” said David Olson, president of mortgage research firm Wholesale Access in Columbia, Maryland. The firm counts GMAC as a client. “To bail out the car companies you need to bail out the finance companies.”

The Treasury’s current holding of non-convertible preferred stock will be swapped for $5.25 billion of the new MCP, and $3 billion of Treasury’s existing MCP will be converted into common, GMAC said.

The conversion of preferred into common “somewhat deleveraged” the company, Carpenter said. When coupled with improved conditions at the mortgage operations, it “will improve access to the capital markets in the near term” and lead to a quicker repayment of government funds, he said.

GMAC Stakeholders

The U.S. stake will rise to 56.3 percent from 35.4 percent. The U.S. also controls General Motors, GMAC’s former parent, whose stake shrinks to 6.7 percent. The stake held by Cerberus Capital Management LP, the New York-based investment firm, falls to 14.9 percent from 22 percent. An independent trust for the benefit of GM holds about 9.9 percent, GMAC said. GMAC doesn’t have publicly traded shares.

“In May, the Treasury Department made a commitment to all institutions that engaged in the stress tests that we would ensure their capital needs are met,” Treasury Department spokesman Andrew Williams said in an interview. “We are making good on that promise.”

GMAC was the only company of 19 that underwent stress tests that wasn’t able to raise capital in the private sector, Williams said. Still, the Treasury said the aid was less than originally planned because restructurings at GM and Chrysler caused less disruption at GMAC than regulators expected. Tim Price, a partner at Cerberus, didn’t return a call for comment.

ResCap’s Fate

GMAC affirmed that it’s looking at “strategic alternatives” for ResCap, ranked among the nation’s 10 biggest home lenders and once one of the largest marketers of subprime mortgages. The parent company wrote down $2 billion in ResCap mortgage assets in preparation for selling them and set up a $500 million reserve tied to the servicing unit that does billing and record-keeping for home loans.

“There will be individual asset sales in the near future but whether some larger concept evolves is a matter of time,” Carpenter said. “We think ResCap and the mortgage business is stable and that we don’t have to do anything crazy. We have no urgency.”

GMAC is being approached “every day with interesting ideas” for the unit, Carpenter said. The shoring up of ResCap allows the government to keep a stake in a company making home loans, said Mirko Mikelic, senior portfolio manager at Fifth Third Asset Management, which owns GMAC bonds.

GMAC contributed $2.7 billion of capital to ResCap in the form of mortgage loans acquired from the Ally Bank unit, debt forgiveness and cash, according to the company statement. GMAC “does not expect to incur additional substantial losses from ResCap,” the company said.

Mortgage Assets

At the Ally unit, GMAC bought “certain higher-risk mortgage assets” at fair value of $1.4 billion, which triggered an estimated $1.3 billion pretax charge. Those assets were contributed to ResCap. GMAC also gave $1.3 billion of cash to Ally to maintain its capital, the statement said.

The infusion is the final dose of capital needed to close a shortfall found by Federal Reserve stress tests in May. GMAC asked the Treasury Department to delay providing the cash when Carpenter was named CEO, replacing Alvaro de Molina on Nov. 16. The deadline for meeting the requirements had been Nov. 9.

GMAC got $12.5 billion in two previous government bailouts and another almost $1 billion that was funneled through GM, which used it to invest in GMAC. The U.S. will name two additional board members in conjunction with its increased stake, according to the statements.

The latest capital infusion and restructuring weren’t enough to stabilize ResCap and assure a return to profitability, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

While the changes were positive, ResCap “has been unprofitable on a quarterly basis for three years, its liquidity position is tenuous, capital insufficient and franchise impaired,” Moody’s said in a statement. GMAC didn’t guarantee continued support for ResCap, and without such help, “we believe ResCap would eventually default,” Moody’s said.

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